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Showing posts with label Elections result. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elections result. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Result of the U.S.A elections 2012

Date : 5, Nov, 2012
Title : U.S Presedential Elections : Polls show Obama just ahead
Source : http://economictimes.indiatimes.com


WASHINGTON: US President Barack Obama is poised to win a second term to the White House, barring a "hidden anti-incumbency vote" from disgruntled Americans that Republicans are banking on.

Almost every poll leading up to Election Day on Tuesday shows Obama sneaking ahead of Republican rival Mitt Romney, nationwide and in key battleground states. Obama has better chances and more ways of cobbling together the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency than does challenger Romney. Pollsters have sliced and diced numbers from different polls every which way and concluded it will take a hidden hand or miracle for Romney to win.

The final Pew Research Poll released on Sunday showed "Bronco Bamma", as one four-year-old dubbed him, huffing to a 48-45 lead (50-47 after undecideds were split) after previous surveys showed them deadlocked or having miniscule leads.

Obama's handling of the Hurricane Sandy aftermath, despite continuing horror stories from New York/New Jersey, and defensible numbers in the latest job report, appear to have stalled the Romney momentum and tilted the race his way.

Exactly six decades after a Univac computer was first deployed to forecast election results in the US, Americans are finding newer ways to predict the winner. That includes employing a former baseball statistician, Nate Silver, to crunch election numbers and come up with odds on a winner instead of even-handed statements with qualifiers that poll pundits are prone to make. While Silver has predicted an Obama victory, Romney backers aren't convinced, saying the odds are still 50-50.

So, here's the statistical outtake on the election —though polls show Obama ahead only marginally (48-45 with a 2.2% margin of error), he is a 75% to 80% favorite to win 270-plus electoral votes and with it the White House.

The forecast comes not from polls and surveys, but from Nate Silver, a statistician who made a name for himself in sabermetrics, which analyses baseball numbers to forecast on-field performance. While traditional poll pundits are aghast, Silver, who has acquired a cult following in this election, is using their numbers to project that Obama is statistically ahead in states that matter most.

Asked in a television interview if he was absolutely convinced President Obama was going to win, Silver chose to answer in a manner that highlighted his methods and conclusions: "I'm convinced that if offered even money I would be happy to bet on Obama. I would need a pretty good price to bet on Romney, the two-to-one wouldn't do for it for me. Three-to-one might."

Romney partisans think that is a load of rubbish, and that given the nationwide tie and the toss-up states still in play hours before the election, the odds are still 50-50. They also claim there is a hidden vote and sense of optimism in the Republican camp that the largely liberal media is overlooking.

Some GoP partisans are predicting a shock victory for Romney with more than 300 electoral votes, which would count as a massive win if not a landslide (Obama won 365 out of 538 in 2008). They are confident of keeping Obama to a one-term presidency. "It's going to be a big win for governor Romney," his political director Rich Beeson said. Democrat partisans are more circumspect, predicting at least 290 for the President.

But Silver has the record to back him up. In 2008, he correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states, although it does not take a rocket scientist to predict more than half the states since they color themselves Red (Republican) or Blue (Democrat) quite prominently. Several other (lighter) ways of assessing the presidential race also suggest that Obama is ahead. Obama Halloween masks outsold Romney masks 63% to 37%; and the mask poll has got it right in the last four elections. Michelle Obama's cookies trumped Ann Romney's by a narrow margin in a magazine contest.

The Republican response to all this is that the media is largely liberal and polls are skewed towards strong Democratic states on the coasts. They say there is a Republican groundswell that the media and pollsters have failed to detect. Tuesday night (Wednesday morning IST) will unmask the winner and show which way the cookie crumbled.

News Update
Date : Tue, 06, Nov, 2012
Source : metro.co.uk
Title : Expectations
العنوان : استطلاعات الرأى عن نتيجة الانتخابات الأمريكيه 2012
Details :

All times GMT
11pm
Initial results expected in Kentucky and Indiana (expected to be won by Romney).
النتائج الأوليه المتوقعه فى ولايتى كنتكى و انديانا لصالح رومنى
Midnight
Polls close in Virginia, a key swing state. Projections expected between midnight and 1am. South Carolina and Georgia are predicted to go to Romney, while Vermont is expected to go to Obama.
تم اغلاق صناديق الاقتراع فى ولاية فيرجينيا (أحد الولايات التى متوقع أن تحسم الأمر, و جارى فرز الأصوات) و كلا من ولايتى جورجيا و جنوب كارولاينا كانتا فى صالح رومنى بينما فى ولاية فيرمونت لصالح أوباما
12.30am
Polls close in Ohio, a key swing state. Many analysts predict this state holds the key to the election. Polling also closes in West Virginia and North Carolina, with both states expected to go to Romney.
تم اغلاق صناديق الاقتراع فى ولاية أوهايو و ذكر المحللون أن هذه الولايه هى الحاسمه فى الانتخابات و ايضا تم اغلاق التصويت فى ولاية فيرجينيا الغربيه و كارولاينا الشماليه و كلاهما لـــ رومنى
1am
Polling closes in several states including swing states Florida, New Hampshire, Missouri and Pennsylvania. Obama is currently tipped to take Pennsylvania but Romney will be hoping for a surprise victory after last minute campaigning in the state. If Florida and New Hampshire are won by the same candidate as Ohio the election could be almost over…
تم اغلاق صناديق الاقتراع فى العديد من الولايات التى متوقع أن تكون حاسمه للانتخابات من بينها فلوريدا و نيوهامشاير و ميسور و بنسلفانيا.و يتوقع أوباما تأييد بنسلفانيا بينما يأمل رومنى فى حدوث مفاجأه فى الوقت الأخير بعد انتهائه من جولته هناك فى اللحظة الأخيره.اذا كانت نتيجة التصويت فى كلا من فلوريدا و نيوهامشاير لصالح نفس المرشح بالاضافة الى ولاية أوهايو فستكون نتيجة الانتخابات محسومه.
1.30am
Polls close in Arkansas, expected to go to Romney.
تم اغلاق صناديق الاقتراع فى ولاية أركنساس لصالح رومنى.
2am
Polls close in swing states Colorado and Wisconsin, while Michigan will also report results. Results in Ohio, Florida and Virginia should have been called by this point.
تم اغلاق صناديق الاقتراع فى ولاية كلورادو و يسكونسن بينما تم اظهار نتيجة و لاية ميتشيجن. و يتوقع اعلان نتيجة كلا من أوهايو و فلوريدا و فيرجينيا بعد دقائق.
3am
Projections of the key swing states will have been announced, so it should become clearer who will take the presidency. Polls close in swing states Iowa and Nevada, which are currently tipped to go Obama's way.
تم اغلاق صناديق الاقتراع فى ولاية أيوا و نيفادا و كلاهما متوقع لصالح أوباما. حيث ان نتيجة هذه الصناديق تحسم الأمر .
4am
Polls close in California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington, which are all expected to go to Obama. Idaho and North Dakota are expected to go to Romney. By this point the winner should be clear.
تم اغلاق صناديق الاقتراع فى ولايتى كاليفورنيا و هاواى و أوريجن و واشنطن و جميعها متوقعه لصالح أوباما. ولاية أيداهو و داكوتا الشاماليه متوقعه لصالح رومنى و من هنا فان الفائز معروف اذا صحت التوقعات .
5am
Polls close in Alaska, expected to go to Romney. Unless either side has mounted legal challenges then the loser will have already conceded in a private phone call to the winning candidate. In 2008 John McCain conceded at 4.15am, but the result wasn't as close.

تم اغلاق صناديق الاقتراع فى ولاية ألاسكا و هى متوقع أن تكون لصالح رومنى. و مالم تهر أى مخالفات قانونيه فان الخاسر قد يكون بالفعل أعلن عن نفسه فى مكالمه هاتفيه خاصه مثلا أو شخصيه للمرشح الفائز كما حدث فى 2008 و لكن كا المرشح "ماكين" قد خسر بفارق كبير.
7.57am
The final result was the winning of Obama .
Barack Obama has won the U.S. Election, with a projected 303 electoral votes (although his win in Florida will almost certainly be subject to a recount).
انتهت الانتخابات الرئاسيه فى الولايات المتده و كانت النتيجه فوز باراك أوباما حيث حصل على 303 صوت على الرغم من أن نتيجة ولاية فلوريدا تعتبر مجال للشك و اعادة الترصيد مره أخرى .

تابعونا .............
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